Friday, April 1, 2016

Fibonacci Numbers for Traders, Rabbits and Other Animals, Small and Large

The legend, probably true, has it that Fibonacci came up with his numbers while observing how the population of rabbits grows due to their breeding. Even though this was centuries ago, I have this uneasy feeling that rabbits still don't get it. And I am quite sure that most traders don't get it either.
I have expressed my strong opinion, somewhat negative, about using Fibonacci indicators for trading in the not so distant past. This opinion, while expressed in the context of e-mini futures, my favorite trading instrument, applies to trading other financial instruments as well, and has more to do with how these indicators are often used (if not abused) and less with the indicators themselves.
Now, what I really want to talk about in this article is how to obtain Fibonacci numbers (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 34, and so on) without rabbits. First, because it only confuses them, the rabbits, and second, because you really don't need two rabbits (and of opposite sex at that) to derive Fibonacci numbers.
You only need one, meaning number 1. Instead of two numbers (say 0 and 1 or 1 and 1) that would form the beginning of the Fibonacci sequence to be obtained via the recursive formula, a(n)=a(n-1)+a(n-2). The formula in question, if applied correctly does produce all the Fibonacci numbers.
For instance, a(2)=a(1)+a(0)=1+0=1, a(3)=a(2)+a(1)=1+1=2, a(4)=a(3)+a(2)=2+1=3, etc.
How can we do this then?
Well, take 1 and add the sum of all the previous numbers, starting from 1, to it.
This sum is 1 for the first term, so the next term we obtain this way is 1+1=2. We now have two terms, 1 and 2, and we can repeat the same procedure obtaining 2+(1+2)=5, as our sum is now 1+2. And since we now have three terms, 1, 2, 5, we can use them to obtain the next term: 5+(1+2+5)=13. In the next step, we have 13+(13+5+2+1)=34.
What we are getting is 1, 2, 5, 13, 34,...
Now, if you know the Fibonacci sequence, or saw a piece of it above, you may be feeling a bit uneasy because that really does not very much resemble one.
Well, only partially so. All these numbers are Fibonacci numbers, but it is also true that these numbers are not all Fibonacci numbers, not the complete sequence of them. It's only every other number from this famous sequence.
And that's fine, because if you really want to obtain the full Fibonacci sequence, you can do this quite easily using only the numbers you have obtained so far and all those that you can continue obtaining in the way outlined above.
You simply subtract the numbers obtained, so 2-1=1 and it goes between 1 and 2, then 5-2=3 and it goes between 2 and 5, and 13-5=8 that goes, obviously, between 5 and 13.
In other words, we can obtain the entire Fibonacci sequence starting just from a single number, 1. Neat, isn't it?
But the sequence of every other Fibonacci number is even easier to obtain (no subtraction needed) starting just from 1 and hence perhaps it is even more fundamental in some way.
Incidentally, I have not seen this kind of derivation before, although I am rather familiar with the Fibonacci literature, but perhaps someone else has come up with it before me, so I will abstain from claiming any priority. Not to mention that this is, at the very best, just a piece of recreational mathematics.

What Are the Benefits of Binary Options Trading?

Even though trading binary options can present some sort of risks, it is considered as the less risky way of trading where earning high return is very fast.
Risks of Binary Options
While speaking of online trading, the trader is given the possibility to start trading with a minimum amount of money of $10 according to the trading tool chosen. The binary options risk is reduced as it gives the opportunity to the trader to invest as little as he can afford to lose. Furthermore, the brokerage platform usually clearly indicates to the traders the exact amount they have the possibility to win and the amount they will lose, prior to the investment that made. If the return or the potential loss prediction do not suit the trader, the latter will have the opportunity to change his investment to a smaller or greater amount.
Therefore, binary options trading give the opportunity to traders to evaluate the risks before they invest their money, which is a feature that other forms of financial trading do not provide. No matter how much the financial market moves, the trader will always be aware of his potential losses.
Online Trading Investment
Binary trading is becoming increasingly popular among traders all over the internet. This popularity is due to the completely different way of trading they offer. Moreover, the traders have the ability to monitor their online trading investment by trading the amount of money they want. This way of trading accepts a minimum investment of $10 per trades, making the online trades very affordable according to the trading tool chosen. Furthermore, Binary Options offer a wide range of financial assets to invest in such as Forex, commodities and stocks.
  • Forex - Which describes changes in foreign currencies such as USD, EUR and AUD
  • Commodities - Metals such as Gold and Silver, Oil and several more
  • Stocks - These are huge companies such as Google and Apple which are available in the asset list.
Fast Returns
Nowadays traders engaging on binary options platform, want to generate high profits in a relatively short period of time. Compared to other traditional financial trading methods, options trading generates a very fast return. It offers the opportunity to have a profit margin up to 85% from the initial investment made. The expiry times available on the trading platforms is relatively short depending on the trading tool chosen. For example, when using the Speed Option tool, the expiry time usually stand between thirty to three hundred seconds. On the other side, traditional trading is held for longer period of time and can go up to many years in some cases. The opportunity to trade rapidly on financial markets combined with the potential of earning high returns is one of the most attractive feature of binary options trading. If a trader succeeds to chain a few winning trades, he can make a substantial profit in less than two hours.
Is Binary Options Easy?
In order to speed up the process from the initial investment to the first trade, brokers have ensured that trading binary options are as simple as possible. Besides, there are only a few steps involved between the signing up to a platform stage and choosing the financial asset the trader will choose to invest on. Those steps also include the choice of the amount the investor wants to trade, the selection of the asset he wants to trade with and the direction he thinks the market will move by the end of the expiry time. The trader gets through all these stages in only a few clicks making binary option very easy.
Furthermore, the profit or loss the investors will encounter will depend upon the fluctuations of the value of the asset. If a trader believes the market is rising, he would place a "call." Whereas if the trader believes the market is falling, he would invest on a "put" option. In order to ensure that a "call" option is profitable, the closing price should be greater than the strike price at the expiry time. Accordingly, for a "put" to be profitable, the price must be below the strike price at the expiry time.
Trading Accessibility
As most of the trading platforms are web-based, they can be accessed everywhere without any downloads as long as the trader has an internet connection. This availability makes it easy for the traders to regularly and conveniently check their options and monitor the financial market on a 24/7 basis. Besides, as the platform offers the access to international markets, traders can constantly keep trading at any time of the day. Moreover, the web-based platforms are now available on desktop computers as well as laptops, tablets and mobile phones which increase the trading access. The mobile application is very popular and is compatible with both Android and IOS software.
Trading binary options is the new trend nowadays. This growing popularity and notoriety in some isolated cases came from the fact that it is quite simple to get embark on this adventure that it is widely available. In order to avoid being on the wrong side of the road, the trader should, first of all, make thorough research in order to choose the most reliable brokerage firm. While speaking of binary option trading, the choice of the service provider is the hardest step for two reasons. The first one is because there is a vast amount of options trading firms and the second reason is that not all of them are regulated and will respect their promise. Therefore, this crucial choice will determine the whole journey of the trader. Once this step done, it is advised whether you are and experienced trader or not to carry out some research about the financial market and to wisely use the educational tools the platform you have chosen gave to you.

5 Crucial Lessons About Successful Trading

In this short article, I'd like to summarize 5 of the most important things I've learned about successful trading, being an independent full-time trader for over 11 years and a fully automated trader for about 7 years. I find all these lessons very important and, in my opinion, no trader should ignore them on their road to success.
Lesson 1: Refined simplicity
I have to admit that I've come a long way since I began trading.
Many years ago, I started trading very simply. It was very basic and, to be honest, it didn't work well. In today´s market, you definitely need more than the usual, basic trading stuff you'll find everywhere on the internet.
Later on, over the years, I've slowly moved to a more sophisticated method of trading, full of very advanced algos, complex know-how, mathematical and really insane trading concepts.
What was the result of that?
The more complex my trading was, the more never-ending technical problems I constantly had, becoming like a snowball effect! The complexity was a nightmare and I found out that this other extreme didn't work either.
In the end, I realized that the trick to success in trading lies in refined simplicity.
Many rather basic trading concepts can still do pretty well, if you can bring something genuinely new to them. That sounds easy to do, but it's definitely the hardest part. After 11 years, I try to keep everything rather simple, but always with some refined, strong and new quality. This keeps my overall workflow manageable, but still brings up extraordinary automated trading systems with great performance.
Lesson 2: Creativity
Like it or not, trading is 40% about being technical and 60% about being creative. Honestly, to me, creativity is still 80% of my success.
What counts is the idea. It's the overall concept that gives you the edge. The more you think outside the box, the more creativity you bring to trading, the faster you'll find great systems and more efficient ways to trade them, and most importantly, the more ideas you'll bring to your risk management.
Coding is the easy part and being a good programmer and having the greatest technology still don't mean much.
I personally know many extremely talented programmers who can code just about anything, but they don't make a penny in trading. They just lack the necessary creativity to come up with out-of-the-box trading ideas and see the whole picture. They aren't able to invent new, viable and fresh trading concepts.
I'm blessed and very fortunate to be a highly creative person and, after all those years in markets, I increasingly see how important the creative part is. So, this is where I'd really like to encourage you to become as creative a trader as possible; don't be afraid of creativity as any crazy idea can become a future winner. Spend less time with all those technical "latest exciting features". Instead, devote more time to thinking up good trading concepts.
I try to create at least one new out-of-the-box idea weekly to keep myself highly competitive in the world of trading. Just let's face it: today's world is about ideas. Look at billionaires nowadays. They don't discover new factories, new products, or commodities. They come up with ideas, usually in the field of technology. Automated trading is very similar to that: you need fresh ideas - plenty of them and fairly non-stop.
Lesson 3: Patience
Everything in successful trading takes time - a lot of time. There isn't any quick-rich-scheme. It's an extremely serious business and you have to build it up step by step. Despite all the marketing hype about trading there is everywhere, with all-the-latest-is-the-greatest platforms, indicators and other highly marketed stuff, there simply is NOT a shortcut. If you want to think about trading seriously, think of it the same way as if you were building a company. It is a serious business. Yes, you can do it from the beach if you want (I personally do sometimes) or even travel a lot while doing it (as I do often), but it still has to be treated as a serious business. And it all needs a lot of patience. If you try to rush it, you are very likely to be just gambling, not building a serious way of making an income.
Trust me. I still need to be patient with everything. I have to be very patient to get my codes tweaked and work properly, to test any new trading idea deeply, to see how 99% of my system candidates don't pass my ultra-tough robustness testing, to wait weeks and sometimes even longer to recover from occasional drawdowns. It's all part of the game. The faster you become a patient person, the faster you'll be a highly successful trader!
Lesson 4: Persistence
Every successful business has its great times and its challenging times. It is the same with trading.
I've recently read an interesting article about bloggers, saying that 90% of bloggers stop blogging after the first year and end up completely forgotten. The remaining 10% persist and later on are usually very successful. The same applies to trading.
Trading is a journey in which you do need to make some painful mistakes to learn the most valuable lessons from them and never make them again. You also have to test 100 great looking ideas, to see that only one of them is really that great and makes you money.
You need persistence-a lot of it. The good part is, that as harsh as it sounds, the reward is usually worth all of it. Yes, you can make a lot of money in trading, you can have a great life and a lot of freedom to do what you want and when you want to, but it isn't for free.
If you aren't persistent, you cannot build anything.
Lesson 5: Diversification
And lastly, this is a highly important lesson that cost me a lot of money in the past.
To achieve as stable an income as possible in the automated trading, you need to diversify more than you think, using several systems, several markets, several timeframes, several trading styles. The more you diversify, the more you'll smooth the equity.
This is also why I constantly work on new strategies - to keep myself diversified to the greatest possible extend. Sky is the limit. I love thinking about new strategies and new trading ideas (I usually get the best ones while traveling and especially in Singapore) and I frequently revise my portfolio. Even if you have a very small trading account, just a few thousands USD (don't worry, I started with the same amount of money), you still need to have diversification in mind, from the very beginning. Even two trading systems are better than just one.